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emep:emep_volcano_plume [2010-05-05 11:05:54]
alvarov update emissions |
— (current) |
| ====== Eyjafjallajokull eruption ====== | |
| ===== Model simulation ===== | |
| ==== Model set-up ==== | |
| The version of the [[http://www.emep.int/OpenSource/index.html|Unified EMEP model]] | |
| correspond to ''rv3_5_21'' on ''FORECAST'' mode. | |
| The simulation was set up as chain of 6 day forecasts, | |
| driven by ''ECMWF'' meteorology ([[http://www.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/|IFS]], [[http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/operational_system/|operational]] 00 ''UTC'' forecast). | |
| The simulation domain covers only ''[25W--35E]x[36N--75N]'' with a ''0.2x0.2'' resolution. | |
| The full extended model domain extends down to ''31N'', but the simulation goes only down to ''36N''. | |
| |
| ==== Meteorology ==== | |
| The fields retrieved for the full extended forecast domain ''[25W--35E]x[31N--75N]'', | |
| from [[http://www.ecmwf.int/services/archive/|MARS]] include: | |
| ^ [[http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/technical/model_levels/model_def_91.html|Levels]] (η=hibrid) ^ Resolution ^ [[http://www.ecmwf.int/services/archive/d/parameters/order=grib_parameter/table=128/|Variables]] ^ | |
| | srf. | ''0.2x0.2'' | ''sshf'' ''slhf'' ''msl'' ''2t'' ''ewss'' ''nsss'' ''lsp'' ''cp'' ''ci'' ''sd'' ''swvl1'' | | |
| | η91---η88 | ''0.2x0.2'' | ''u'' ''v'' ''w'' ''t'' ''q'' ''cc'' | | |
| | η87---η38 | ''0.8x0.8'' | ''u'' ''v'' ''w'' ''t'' ''q'' ''cc'' | | |
| |
| ==== Emission set-up ==== | |
| Maximum plume height comes from [[http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/|London VAAC reports]]. | |
| |
| Emission rates of PM10 and PM2.5 interpreted from [[http://www2.norvol.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/swdocument/1015805/Report+on+14+April+Eyjafjoll+eruption+%C3%9E%C3%9E+GL+AH.pdf|PDF]] | |
| and discussion with Ármann Höskuldsson (University of Iceland). | |
| Emission rates for the 14-16 are towards the higher end of the | |
| observed mean total ash emissions from the 14-16 and the 17-19 are | |
| from the low end of the observed mean total ash emissions from the | |
| 14-16 because emissions were reported to have decreased after the | |
| first three days. For the 20 it is lower because of reports that there | |
| is now less ash in the plume. | |
| |
| Emission rates of SO2 for the 15 are based on [[http://sites.google.com/site/iavceirscweb/eruptions/eyja|OMI SO2]]. | |
| The SO2 then decreases through the 18th consistent with reports of weaker plumes | |
| and OMI not observing new puffs clearly and then increases on the | |
| 19th. The SO2 values except for on the 15th are not based on total OMI | |
| observed SO2, rather they are intended to represent trends in the SO2 | |
| emissions. | |
| |
| === Eruption emission parameters === | |
| ^ ^ PM10 [kg/s] ^ PM2.5 [kg/s] ^ SO2 [kg/s] ^ height [km] ^ | |
| | 2010-04-14 | 1E3 | 2.8E2 | 15 | 8 | | |
| | 2010-04-15 | 5E3 | 1.4E3 | 46 | 7 | | |
| | 2010-04-16 | 5E3 | 1.4E3 | 15 | 7 | | |
| | 2010-04-17 | 9E3 | 2.5E3 | 10 | 7 | | |
| | 2010-04-18 | 2E3 | 5.6E2 | 10 | 5 | | |
| | 2010-04-19 | 3E3 | 8.4E2 | 20 | 5 | | |
| | 2010-04-20 | 3E2 | 8.4E1 | 15 | 4 | | |
| | 2010-04-21---2010-04-29 | 3E2 | 8.4E1 | 15 | 3 | | |
| | 2010-04-30---2010-05-02 | 3E2 | 8.4E1 | 15 | 4 | | |
| | 2010-05-03---today | 2E3 | 5.6E2 | 25 | 5 | | |
| |
| === Implementation details === | |
| == Emissions == | |
| * Volcanic eruption emission are hard-coded into the model. | |
| * The eruption started on 2010-04-14 at 00 ''UTC'' and continues trough the simulation. | |
| * Emissions are treated as a vertical line source. | |
| * Emission rates for each day are assumed constant trough the column height. | |
| * Ash emissions are treated in the model as primary ''PM'' emissions. | |
| * In order to model only the volcanic plume **only ash emissions** are taken into account as primary ''PM'' emissions, i.e. all other primary ''PM'' emissions are neglected. | |
| * Primary fine ''PM'' (''PPM25'') emission rates are set accordingly to ''PM2.5'' [[#eruption_emission_parameters|eruption parameters]]. | |
| * Primary coearse ''PM'' (''PPMCO'') emission rates are derived from ''PM10''-''PM2.5'' [[#eruption_emission_parameters|eruption parameters]]. | |
| * Volcanic ''SO2'' emissions are added to the [[http://www.emep.int/OpenSource/UniEMEPopenSource_input.html#emissions|standard model emissions]]. | |
| * [[http://www.emep.int/OpenSource/UniEMEPopenSource_input.html#emissions|Standard model emissions]] are set accordingly to the TNO-MACC-1 emission dataset. | |
| |
| == Additional output == | |
| * Under several assumptions, the aerosol optical depth (''AOD'') can be estimated from the fine and coarse ''PM'' columns. In order to provide a simple comparison to satellite ''AOD'' observations, the partial contribution of the volcanic particles was calculated (''P-AOD'') from the primary fine and coarse columns. | |
| |
| == Simulation == | |
| * The simulations are run on [[http://hpc.uio.no/|titan (UiO)]] on 8x2 processors. | |
| * The driving bash and perl scripts at: | |
| * titan:~alvarov/Unify/run/cwf_ext-2010.sh | |
| * titan:~alvarov/Unify/run/modrun.rv3.CWF-EXT.pl | |
| * Source and meteorology files are located at: | |
| * titan:~alvarov/Unify/Unimod.rv3_5_21.CWF-EXT/ | |
| * titan:/data3/metno/emep/Data/FORECAST/metdata/ | |
| * 2010/meteo-ext201004??_??.nc ([[emep/emep_met_files|EMEP Format]]) | |
| * 2010_ECMWF/cwf-ext_*_f201004??.nc ([[#meteorology|retrieved from MARS]]) | |
| * The raw output and images is located at: | |
| * titan:~alvarov/CWF/output.rv3.CWF-EXT.2010 | |
| * titan:~alvarov/CWF/output.rv3.CWF-EXT.2010/www/images | |
| ==== Results ==== | |
| The latest images (''*.png'') and animations (''*.mpg'') for each forecast day can be found [[ftp://ftp.met.no/pub/emep/AMVB/|here]]. | |
| * All images for a given forecast (or hindcast) are collected in one single zip file, e.g. ''20100414.zip'' contains all images for the forecast starting on April 14th. | |
| * Each forecast lasts 6 days, starting at 00 ''UTC'' (145 hourly records). | |
| * If emissions estimates improve, past forecast will be re-run (hindcast) and the previous files updated. Zip files for a hindcast include images only for that day (25 hourly records). | |
| * For consistency, zip files are updated when the graphic layout changes or when additional variables are plotted. | |
| |
| * Hourly images are named according to the following convention: ''var_lev_fsdate_date.png'', where: | |
| * ''var'' is the variable name (e.g. ''ppm25'' for fine volcanic particles): | |
| * ''lev'' is the level (e.g. ''tcol'' for total column); | |
| * ''fsdate'' is the forecast start date (in ''YYYYMMDD'' format); | |
| * ''date'' is the forecasted date and hour (in ''YYYYMMDDHH'' format); | |
| * Animations for the whole period are named ''var_lev_fsdate.mpg''. | |
| |
| ^ Variable ^^ Model Levels ^^ Trop. column ^ | |
| ^ ^^ ''1km'' ^ ''5km'' ^ ''tcol'' ^ | |
| | ''ppm25'' | fine volcanic particulate matter | μg/m3 | μg/m3 | μg/m2 | | |
| | ''ppm10'' | fine+coarse volcanic particulate matter | μg/m3 | μg/m3 | μg/m2 | | |
| | ''so2'' | sulfur dioxide | | | du ([[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobson_unit|Dobson units]]) | | |
| | ''p-aod'' | partial aerosol optical depth | | | unitless | | |
| |
| ===== Additional resources ===== | |
| ==== Satellite observations ==== | |
| * GOME-2, SCIAMACHY & OMI [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/index.php?Year=2010&Month=04&Day=15&Region=106|SO2 column]] | |
| * MODIS [[http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/browse_images/l3_browser.html|AOD]] | |
| * MODIS [[http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/geocat_ash/loops/iceland.html|ASH]] last 12 hours | |
| |
| ^ Date ^^ SO2 column ^^^ MODIS AOD ^^ | |
| ^ %F ^ %j ^ GOME-2 ^ SCIAMACHY ^ OMI ^ Terra ^ Aqua ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-14 ^ 104 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/14/scia_20100414.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/104|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/104|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/104|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-15 ^ 105 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/15/scia_20100415.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/105|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/105|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/105|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-16 ^ 106 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/16/scia_20100416.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/106|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/106|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/106|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-17 ^ 107 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/17/scia_20100417.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/107|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/107|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/107|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-18 ^ 108 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/18/scia_20100418.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/108|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/108|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/108|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-19 ^ 109 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/19/scia_20100419.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/109|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/109|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/109|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-20 ^ 110 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/20/scia_20100420.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/110|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/110|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/110|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-21 ^ 111 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100421.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/111|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/111|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/111|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-22 ^ 112 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100422.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/112|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/112|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/112|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-23 ^ 113 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100423.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/113|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/113|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MYD04_L2/2010/113|ftp]] ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-24 ^ 114 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100424.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/114|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/114|ftp]] ^ ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-25 ^ 115 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100425.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/115|ftp]] ^ [[ftp://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/allData/51/MOD04_L2/2010/115|ftp]] ^ ^ | |
| ^ 2010-04-26 ^ 116 ^ ^ [[http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/21/scia_20100426.zip|zip]] ^ [[ftp://aurapar2u.ecs.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/Aura_OMI_Level2/OMSO2.003/2010/116|ftp]] ^ ^ ^ | |
| |
| ==== Other model simulations ==== | |
| * SNAP [[http://met.no/animasjon.html|Dispersion]] | |
| * MACC [[http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/news/volcanic_ash/|SO2 column]] | |
| * EURAD [[http://db.eurad.uni-koeln.de/index.html?/prognose/|PM10]] | |
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